IMF Calls for Budget Adjustments Amid Lower‑Than‑Expected Oil Revenues.
In a fresh Article IV assessment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised Nigeria to recalibrate its 2025 budget, warning that crude oil prices averaging $68 per barrel fall short of the government's $75 benchmark. The mismatch threatens Nigeria’s revenue assumptions and fiscal stability.
While Nigeria’s economic growth is forecast at around 3.4 % in 2025 and 3.2 % in 2026, the IMF noted this remains insufficient to reduce poverty or support inclusive development. As such, they recommended expanded cash transfer programs to mitigate rising food insecurity—though implementation remains constrained due to limited financial inclusion.
The IMF praised recent reforms—such as naira floatation and subsidy removal—for improving investor sentiment. At the same time, they emphasised the need for greater administrative efficiency and cost savings to shrink the budget deficit, including through fuel subsidy cutbacks estimated at 2 % of GDP.
Failure to adjust expectations now could result in deeper debt burdens and slow progress toward stabilization. IMF’s message is clear: Nigeria must align its fiscal plan with actual oil prices, ramp up social spending, and uphold disciplined public finance management.
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