IMF warns Nigeria to adjust its 2025 budget as oil prices stay below assumptions.
In early July, the International Monetary Fund issued a blunt warning: Nigeria must recalibrate its 2025 budget assumptions, as global oil prices of around $68 per barrel are well below the $75 benchmark used in budget planning.
The IMF predicted that while Nigeria’s GDP should grow at about 3.4% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, inflation remains high and economic gains per capita are muted. It recommended stronger buffers, tighter monetary policy, and using fuel subsidy savings to support cash transfers and infrastructure.
Fuel subsidy savings could free fiscal space worth about 2% of GDP, the IMF notes, but scaling up direct support to poor households remains limited by poor data and low banking access among vulnerable populations.
Experts highlight that budget over-optimism on oil production and fx rates, along with high debt servicing obligations, could crowd out capital spending unless fiscal discipline improves.
I’m Adedayo Obadina
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