Al-Shabaab Seizes Tardo, Escalating Central Somalia Offensive
Al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda-linked extremist group, has dramatically intensified its offensive across central Somalia, delivering a significant strategic blow to the Somali Federal Government (FGS). The latest and most notable of these gains is the capture of Tardo in the Hiraan region, a move that has forced over 12,000 families to flee their homes.
This resurgence by Al-Shabaab, which comes despite years of military pressure and recent counter-offensives by government forces, marks a critical turning point in the conflict.
Key Gains in Central Regions
Reports indicate that Al-Shabaab is rapidly expanding its control, particularly within the Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions. The recent fall of Tardo, seized after fierce clashes that drove out pro-government clan fighters, underscores the group's renewed momentum.
These recent successes are part of what is being termed the "2025 Shabelle Offensive" or "Operation Ramadan," launched by Al-Shabaab in February 2025. This coordinated campaign features multi-pronged assaults on Somali military positions, often employing devastating car bombs in ground attacks. The group's stated objective is to encircle the capital, Mogadishu, and reclaim vital strategic towns and supply routes lost during the FGS's 2022-2023 offensive. Data confirms a marked increase in Al-Shabaab's attacks in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle in 2025 compared to the previous year.
Government Stumbles Amidst Resurgence
While the Somali government initiated counter-offensives against Al-Shabaab in August 2022, initially recapturing territory, the current situation suggests a significant reversal. By early 2025, the government's offensive appeared to have stalled, and since February, Al-Shabaab has reportedly reclaimed most of the territory it lost in Middle Shabelle since 2022.
Challenges facing the FGS are mounting. The Somali Armed Forces are reportedly overstretched, battling Al-Shabaab on multiple fronts. Furthermore, a perceived decline in federal military support has left clan militias, particularly in Hiraan, fighting Al-Shabaab largely unsupported. Compounding these issues are reports of deepening societal divisions, including persistent clan rivalries and political disarray within the government, which are believed to have critically weakened government defenses and enabled Al-Shabaab's resurgence.
Devastating Civilian Impact
Al-Shabaab's expanding control carries severe consequences for the civilian population. The intensified fighting and the group's advances have led to the displacement of thousands of families. Beyond immediate displacement, the economic impact of terrorist incidents is significant, leading to decreased household consumption, particularly of essential food items, and exacerbating poverty.
The ongoing conflict is deepening an already dire humanitarian crisis, intensified by drought conditions, leading to increased vulnerability and displacement. Women and girls, in particular, face heightened risks of sexual violence. Al-Shabaab frequently exploits civilian grievances related to political exclusion and government neglect, offering rudimentary services like a form of justice to gain traction, thereby creating a complex and often coercive relationship with local populations.
The situation in central Somalia remains highly volatile, with Al-Shabaab demonstrating a formidable renewed capability to seize and hold territory, posing an urgent and grave threat to regional stability and humanitarian conditions.
