West Africa in Turmoil: Coup Belt Expands, ECOWAS Fractures Amidst Protracted Transitions
west Africa is navigating a period of profound political instability as a "coup belt" of military-led nations increasingly challenges democratic norms and regional unity. As of July 9, 2025, the region faces a complex landscape defined by stalled transitions, a historic exodus from ECOWAS, and escalating security threats.
The Deepening "Coup Belt": Democracies Under Threat
Since 2020, military takeovers have swept across West Africa, with Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger all experiencing coups. Critically, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger remain firmly under junta rule, with their promised returns to civilian governance repeatedly delayed or shrouded in uncertainty.
Mali: General Assimi Goita, who seized power in successive coups, has solidified his control. A recent legislative bill paves the way for him to potentially lead the nation until 2030, a stark contradiction to earlier pledges for civilian rule by March 2024. The junta has further tightened its grip by dissolving all political parties and organizations and banning public gatherings, severely curtailing civic freedoms.
Burkina Faso: Mirroring Mali's trajectory, Burkina Faso's military leadership has moved to consolidate its authority, including withdrawing licenses for foreign NGOs and suspending associations, indicating a growing constriction of civil society space.
Niger: Following its 2023 coup, Niger remains under military administration, with its path to civilian governance unclear despite previous ECOWAS-mandated transition timelines.
Guinea: The military junta led by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, in power since 2021, had a roadmap with ECOWAS for civilian rule and elections by late 2024. However, progress has been hampered by significant delays, a lack of transparency, and insufficient funding. The junta's announcement of a constitutional referendum in the first half of 2025 has heightened tensions, drawing accusations from the opposition of undermining the transition and escalating crackdowns on dissent.
These prolonged military transitions, often devoid of genuine dialogue with opposition and civil society, foster fragile governance, creating an environment highly susceptible to social unrest and further instability.
The ECOWAS Exodus: A Historic Fracture
In an unprecedented move that threatens to reshape regional dynamics, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso formally announced their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in January 2025. Their departure became effective on January 29, 2025, citing ECOWAS's "inhumane and irresponsible" coup-related sanctions and a perceived failure to assist them with their internal security crises.
While ECOWAS approved an "exit timeline" for these three nations, keeping its doors open until July 29, 2025, the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES) by the juntas has largely rebuffed ECOWAS's mediation efforts. The AES members are now actively exploring independent travel documents and forging their own security and economic alliance, further widening the regional chasm.
The implications of this unprecedented departure are profound:
Weakened Regional Integration: The withdrawal threatens to fracture West Africa's economic unity, disrupting vital cross-border commerce and jeopardizing ambitious regional initiatives like the proposed Eco single currency and the broader African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Erosion of Collective Security: The absence of a united front could severely weaken regional efforts to combat transnational threats, including terrorism, drug smuggling, and human trafficking, leaving individual states more vulnerable.
Geopolitical Shifts: The withdrawal may embolden further military coups and could lead to increased reliance on non-traditional military partnerships, including mercenary groups, potentially allowing external actors to exert greater influence.
Economic Hardship: For the landlocked and often impoverished nations of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, leaving ECOWAS risks severe economic isolation, potentially exacerbating existing hardships from conflict and humanitarian crises.
Deep-Rooted Drivers of Volatility
Several interconnected factors continue to fuel West Africa's political instability and complicate transitions:
Jihadist Expansion: The Sahel remains the global epicenter of terrorism, with groups like al-Qaida affiliates and Islamic State factions exploiting weak governance, intercommunal tensions, and dire economic conditions to expand their reach. This violence is increasingly spilling southward towards coastal West African states.
Poor Governance and Corruption: Entrenched issues of weak governance, systemic corruption, and a severe lack of accountability continue to erode public trust in democratic institutions.
Economic Hardship and Inequality: High youth unemployment, soaring inflation, and inadequate social services contribute significantly to widespread public discontent and fuel popular protests.
Climate Change and Resource Scarcity: Climate-change-driven desertification and intensifying land scarcity exacerbate farmer-herder tensions, particularly in the North-Central regions of some countries.
Constitutional Manipulations: In some instances, attempts by elected civilian leaders to manipulate constitutional term limits have also contributed to political fragility, with critics pointing to ECOWAS's perceived inconsistency in responding to such actions versus military coups.
The complex interplay of these factors suggests that West Africa's political landscape is likely to remain volatile for the foreseeable future, demanding sustained regional and international efforts to uphold democratic principles, address the root causes of instability, and promote peaceful, inclusive transitions.
