Sahel Plunges Deeper into Crisis as Juntas Consolidate Power, Terror Spreads
The Sahel region, a vast and fragile belt across Africa, continues its harrowing descent into deep-seated political instability and rampant violent conflict. As of July 2025, it stands as one of the world's most perilous hotspots, posing escalating threats to both regional stability and international security.
Global Epicenter of Terrorism: Violence Surges Unabated
The Sahel has cemented its grim title as the fastest-growing hub of violent extremist activity on the African continent. The 2025 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) painted a stark picture, revealing that the region accounted for an alarming 19% of all global terrorist attacks and a staggering 51% of worldwide terrorism-related deaths in 2024—a significant jump from 48% in 2023. Conflict-related fatalities in the Sahel crossed the terrifying 25,000 mark for the first time last year, underscoring the spiraling violence.
Extremist groups, predominantly affiliates of al-Qaeda like Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimeen (JNIM) and factions linked to the Islamic State (e.g., Islamic State in the Sahel Province - ISSP), are exploiting pervasive weak governance, escalating intercommunal tensions, and dire economic hardships to expand their brutal dominion. These groups are becoming increasingly aggressive, even leveraging sophisticated weaponry like drones. While Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger remain the epicenters of this devastation, the militant Islamist violence is ominously shifting southward and westward, now exerting significant pressure on coastal West African neighbors like Benin and Togo, both of whom have reported an uptick in attacks.
Military Juntas Cement Control, Democracy Recedes
A defining characteristic of the Central Sahel's crisis is the firm grip of military rule. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have all experienced multiple coups in recent years, leading to a dramatic democratic backslide and a suffocating constriction of civic space. Dissent is being brutally suppressed, with crackdowns on media, political opposition, and fundamental freedoms.
Mali: In a move that has sent shockwaves across the region, General Assimi Goïta, the military ruler, approved a controversial new law on July 10, 2025. This legislation grants him a five-year presidential term, renewable indefinitely and without the need for elections, effectively prolonging authoritarian rule far beyond the previously promised return to civilian governance. This follows a chilling ban on political parties enacted in May.
Burkina Faso: Captain Ibrahim Traoré, the transitional president, is similarly consolidating military power. The Transition Charter was revised in May 2024 to extend military rule for five years, even as the nation grapples with extremely high levels of violence from non-state armed groups. Human rights organizations report a severe deterioration of the human rights situation, with credible accounts of civilian killings by both armed groups and state forces.
Niger: Since the July 2023 coup, military-led authorities have flagrantly disregarded human rights commitments. Arbitrary detentions and a relentless crackdown on critical voices persist, with former President Mohamed Bazoum remaining detained despite a ruling from the ECOWAS court for his immediate release. The transition period could also stretch for up to five renewable years.
Further complicating regional dynamics, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger collectively announced their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in January 2024, citing a perceived lack of solidarity in addressing their pressing security challenges. This schism has created a significant regional divide and severely hampered coordinated efforts. In a show of consolidating their power, on July 7, 2025, the military leaders of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger signed a treaty establishing the "Confederation of the Sahel States" (Alliance des États du Sahel - AES). This pact, deepening a mutual defense agreement from September 2023, signifies a move towards greater self-reliance in security, but simultaneously underscores the entrenchment of military power.
Transnational Crime and Terrorism: A Deadly Alliance
The Sahel has become a hotbed for criminal networks and illicit trafficking, forming a dangerous nexus with terrorism. Transnational organized crime (TOC) now provides vital financial lifelines to extremist groups through illicit arms, narcotics, human, and fuel trafficking, as well as cybercrime and the illegal exploitation of natural resources like gold. In return, terrorist actors offer protection and enforcement for these illicit trade routes.
Porous borders, the sophisticated use of technology for communication and financing, and control over strategic routes enable these burgeoning threats. The UNODC warns that TOC not only intensifies violence but also tragically provides a critical source of livelihood for marginalized communities where state presence is dangerously weak. Recognizing the cross-border nature of these threats, organizations like the UNODC are working to enhance cooperation between North African countries to counter terrorism and its links with organized crime.
Humanitarian Crisis and Shifting Alliances
The surge in violence has triggered an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. Over two million people are internally displaced in Burkina Faso alone, with thousands more fleeing their homes in Mali and Niger. The region also remains a primary transit point for desperate migrants. Humanitarian assistance is severely hampered by access constraints, particularly in conflict-affected areas, exacerbating the already dire food and aid situation. Underlying vulnerabilities such as poor governance, under-development, the impacts of climate change (leading to increased farmer-herder conflicts), and economic decline fuel this crisis, creating fertile ground for violent extremism.
Compounding the challenges, there has been a notable shift in international partnerships. Traditional Western powers, particularly France, have significantly reduced their military footprint in the Sahel. This void has increasingly been filled by non-traditional military partners, notably the Russian Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group). This shift aligns with growing anti-colonial sentiment in the region and has led to strained ties with Western nations.
The Sahel's situation is a deeply complex and vicious cycle of violence, political instability, and profound human suffering. Effective solutions demand a multifaceted approach that extends beyond purely security measures, delving into the critical underlying issues of governance, sustainable development, and climate resilience.
