Japan's Ruling Coalition Faces Major Setback as Upper House Election Results Emerge
As of Sunday, July 20, 2025, Japan held high-stakes parliamentary elections for its upper house, the House of Councillors. This election proved to be a critical test for the ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, especially given that it had already lost its majority in the more powerful lower house in October 2024.
The Election and its Stakes:
Seats Contested: Voters elected 124 of the 248 members of the House of Councillors for a six-year term. Half of the 248 seats in the upper house are contested in each triennial election.
Crucial Test for the Ruling Coalition: The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and its junior coalition partner Komeito, needed to win at least 50 seats to retain an overall majority in the upper house. This election was widely seen as a key indicator of public support for Ishiba's government.
Political Instability: The election occurred amidst significant political instability in Japan. Ishiba's coalition had already lost its majority in the lower house in October 2024, forcing his government to seek cooperation from opposition parties to pass legislation. A further setback in the upper house deepens this instability, even though the upper house cannot directly file a no-confidence motion against the prime minister.
Key Issues Driving Voter Sentiment:
Economic Hardship: Soaring inflation and stagnant wages were primary concerns for many Japanese voters. The price of rice, a staple, reportedly doubled since last year, significantly contributing to widespread voter discontent.
Social Security Burdens: Frustrations over burdensome social security payments also played a significant role in shaping public opinion.
Immigration and "Japanese First" Policies: Stricter measures targeting foreign residents and visitors emerged as a key issue. The surging right-wing populist party, Sanseitō, campaigned on an "anti-foreigner" or "Japanese First" platform. This party advocated for policies such as a new agency to handle foreigner-related policies, stricter screening for Japanese citizenship, and the exclusion of non-Japanese individuals from welfare benefits. This rhetoric also fueled xenophobic sentiment on social media.
Government Accountability: Persistent corruption scandals continued to affect the ruling coalition, adding to public frustration with Ishiba's government.
US-Japan Trade Deal: Japan also faced an impending deadline of August 1, 2025, to finalize a trade deal with the United States to avoid potential punishing tariffs in its largest export market, adding another layer of pressure.
Preliminary Results and Projections (Based on Exit Polls):
Significant Setback for Ruling Coalition: Exit polls released as ballots closed indicated a major setback for Ishiba's ruling coalition. It is highly likely to lose its majority in the upper house.
LDP and Komeito Performance: NHK public broadcaster projected that it would be "difficult for the ruling coalition to maintain their majority," with the LDP and Komeito forecast to lose a substantial number of seats. Initial projections from various networks showed the coalition winning just over 40 seats, far fewer than the 50 needed to retain control. Specifically, the LDP alone is projected to win between 32 to 35 seats, its lowest showing while remaining the largest party.
Gains for Opposition and Minor Parties: Minor parties such as the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) and the far-right Sanseitō made significant gains. The DPP could quadruple its seat count to 17 seats from its previous 4, while Sanseitō is expected to surge to 16 seats from just one. The main opposition party, the liberal Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), was also projected to expand its seat count, potentially winning up to 26 seats.
Ishiba's Stance: Prime Minister Ishiba acknowledged the "tough situation" and vowed to stay on to tackle economic and security challenges, stating he would fulfill his responsibility as head of the LDP. However, a poor showing could lead to calls for his resignation from within the LDP. A minority government will now face significant challenges in forming consensus with a fragmented opposition.
This election highlights a clear shift in the Japanese political landscape, with frustrated voters increasingly turning to emerging populist and opposition parties, indicating a strong desire for change amidst pressing economic anxieties and social concerns. The preliminary results suggest a challenging period ahead for Prime Minister Ishiba's government, with the outcomes expected to profoundly shape Japan's political dynamics in the near future.
I'm Aisha shehu
Talksocialtalka News
