Polls predict ruling LDP-Komeito may lose upper house majority ahead of vote
Shockwaves reverberated through Tokyo’s political circles on July 15, as polls forecast that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito coalition risk losing control of the upper house on July 20 . The timing is critical—parliament must approve a U.S. trade deal before hefty 25% tariffs kick in on August 1.
Rising living expenses and steep rice prices have eroded public confidence. Ishiba recently proposed cash handouts to households but resisted opposition calls to cut the sales tax, drawing criticism as “too little, too late” .
Markets responded swiftly—long-term Japanese government bond yields hit record highs, reflecting investor anxiety over potential fiscal instability . Tokyo’s financial hub now watches closely as lawmakers head into a crunch week to avoid disrupting Japan–U.S. trade negotiations.
A loss in seats would constrain Ishiba’s agenda, making urgent deadlines unsustainable and undermining confidence at home and abroad.
Adedayo Obadina
Talksocialtalks
