IMF calls on Nigeria to adjust budget assumptions amid falling oil prices.
The International Monetary Fund has urged Nigeria to recalibrate its 2025 budget in response to declining global oil prices, currently hovering around $68 per barrel—below the $75 benchmark used during budget planning . As Africa’s top oil producer, Nigeria is grappling with strains on fiscal and external stability, which could exacerbate inflation and poverty.
In its Article IV assessment, the IMF forecasted GDP growth of 3.4% for 2025 and 3.2% in 2026—solid but weak per capita. The Fund highlighted inflation as persistently high and warned of significant risks to food security. To cushion vulnerable populations, it recommended scaling up cash transfer programs, though acknowledged challenges due to insufficient banking infrastructure.
To maintain fiscal balance, the IMF pushed for structural measures like fuel subsidy savings (about 2% of GDP) and administrative reforms. It also championed continued foreign-exchange market reforms and tighter monetary policy to bring inflation under control.
Ultimately, the IMF emphasized the urgency for Nigeria to build buffers and resilience amid volatile global conditions—advice that now rests with President Tinubu’s economic team.
I’m Adedayo Obadina
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